New GIGA Focus Latin America | Conditions for Democratic Transitions: Venezuela’s 2024 Elections / Jesus Renzullo

GIGA Focus | Latin America | Number 2 | April 2024 | ISSN 1862-3573

The resounding victory of María Corina Machado in the opposition primaries of October 2023 gave new hope for a transition from autocratic rule to democracy. But this also sounded the alarm among the Venezuelan government, whose survival depends on maintaining control over the executive. Nevertheless, current both internal and international conditions favour the Nicolás Maduro regime.

Regional opposition has waned with the arrival into office of left-wing governments in Brazil and Colombia, as well as general crises facing formerly anti-Maduro regimes like those of Ecuador and Peru. EU and US opposition has diminished due to the Ukraine War and Israel’s military onslaught in Gaza.

When comparing current political conditions to those the last time there was an attempt to oust the Maduro government (2018–2019), it is fair to argue that the situation today is more favourable to the incumbent than it was previously.
Venezuela’s economic, security, and diplomatic circumstances are also significantly better than they were in the years 2014–2019. These include lower inflation, increased revenues, improved urban security, better control over national territory, and renewed diplomatic ties with the Latin American region and with Western powers.
The conditions for free and fair elections in Venezuela are yet to materialise, and the Maduro’s regime control over the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and the National Electoral Council only discredit the possibility of a transition to democracy being achieved via the ballot box.

Policy Implications

The opposition is already showing signs of fragmentation due to the unyielding ban on candidate Machado taking public office, while US pressure has faded after the Barbados Agreement of October 2023. Therefore, the EU’s position and diplomatic pressure might be the only way to push for better electoral conditions in Venezuela.

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OpenEdition le sugiere que cite este post de la siguiente manera:
REGARDS CNRS (8 de abril de 2024). New GIGA Focus Latin America | Conditions for Democratic Transitions: Venezuela’s 2024 Elections / Jesus Renzullo. Redial & Ceisal. Recuperado 18 de julio de 2024 de https://doi.org/10.58079/w6ik


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