New GIGA Focus Latin America | Legitimacy Crisis and Venezuela’s Long Road to Democratic Transition

GIGA Focus | Latin America | Number 4 | August 2024 | ISSN 1862-3573.

As Nicolás Maduro spuriously claims to have won the 28 July elections, Venezuela slides into full autocracy. While this underscore the regime’s increasing lack of support, internal fractures, and the growing force of the opposition, domestic and international dynamics make a short-term democratic transition unlikely. However, this weakened position could open unexpected opportunities for change.

The 28 July elections deepened the regime’s legitimacy crisis both domestically and internationally. While the opposition has convincingly demonstrated that Edmundo González received a clear majority of the vote, the regime refuses to make public the tallies on the back of which it claims victory for Maduro instead.

The international community is divided over the electoral results, with Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico no longer supporting Maduro as before. However, doubts persist about their future direction, particularly regarding Brazil and Colombia due to own political interests and their ideological ties to the current Venezuelan regime.

The opposition, led by María Corina Machado, has adopted a strategy of attrition to gradually weaken the incumbents, relying on coordinated international pressure in seeking to eventually facilitate democratic transition.

Policy Implications

A coordinated response to the regime’s entrenchment is essential. The international community should prioritise staunch support for democratic forces, particularly President-elect González and opposition leader Machado. Sustained pressure must be applied on Maduro while remaining open to dialogue, using the legitimacy crisis to facilitate democratic transition and ensure long-term stability.

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