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New GIGA Focus Latin America | Ballots over Streets: Bolivia’s Fragile Democratic Gamble

Natalia Aparicio and Daniela Osorio Michel

Ballots over Streets: Bolivia’s Fragile Democratic Gamble

GIGA Focus | Latin America | Number 4 | October 2025 | ISSN 1862-3573 On 19 October 2025, Bolivia will hold a presidential runoff election for the first time in its history. After two decades of one-party dominance, voters turned to two opposition candidates promoting market-oriented reforms. Amid economic strain, Bolivians are channelling their discontent at the ballot box, even as governability remains uncertain.

  • Bolivia is entering the runoff amid a crisis of representation rooted in weak parties and eroding trust in institutions. This is interacting with a further crisis: economic fragility in the form of stagnation, shrinking reserves, fuel shortages, and dependence on extractive sectors. Those working precariously and in the informal sector are hit the hardest.

  • Satisfaction with democracy has sunk to a new low, yet Bolivians have channelled discontent electorally rather than in the streets. Protest votes surged in the first round despite both contenders offering only vague or short-term plans, which has raised doubts about their ability to confront structural challenges.

  • The Legislative Assembly will be decisive for governability. As the most representative body, it can diffuse responsibility and lend legitimacy to unpopular reforms. Yet, neither of the candidates will have a parliamentary majority of his own. Weak parties, fragile coalitions, and politicised courts put it at risk for gridlock.

  • The next government must rebuild legitimacy by forging coalitions, restoring institutional trust, and balancing urgent economic measures with social protection to avoid renewed conflict.

Policy Implications

To rebuild trust in democracy, the new government must act swiftly to stabilise the economy while protecting the most vulnerable among its population. International partners, especially Germany and the EU, should engage as reliable allies, supporting economic diversification, clean energy, and inclusive growth in line with Bolivia’s own priorities.

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OpenEdition le sugiere que cite este post de la siguiente manera:
REGARDS CNRS (16 de octubre de 2025). New GIGA Focus Latin America | Ballots over Streets: Bolivia’s Fragile Democratic Gamble. Redial & Ceisal. Recuperado 21 de abril de 2026 de https://doi.org/10.58079/14yuc


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