
Venezuela between US Military Threat and Regime Survival / Jesús Antonio Renzullo Narvaez.
GIGA Focus | Latin America | Number 6 | December 2025 | ISSN 1862-3573.
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The current US military buildup in the Caribbean has raised expectations that Maduro’s regime will collapse under pressure, reviving hopes for a democratic transition in Venezuela. However, it is uncertain whether the US will pursue a strategy of regime change, and whether such a strategy would lead to a democratic transition. A change of guard within the regime remains the more likely scenario.
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US policy towards Venezuela over the past year has oscillated between dealmaking and confrontation depending on which faction (Marco Rubio’s hawks vs. Richard Grenell’s dealmakers) is influencing the White House.
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Maduro could survive this pressure campaign through internal crackdowns and surveillance via his security apparatus, as long as the rest of the political and intelligence elite remain loyal. US strikes inside Venezuela could weaken his grip on the apparatus, but it will depend on where those strikes take place.
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Current US policy focuses on “ousting Maduro” without much foresight or political will regarding promoting a specific new government in Venezuela. This strategy does not benefit Maduro, but it does favour an “intra-elite” transition. A democratic breakthrough is not a given in the short term, but a window of opportunity would be opened for democratic forces.
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A democratic breakthrough would require not only mass mobilisation inside the country in support of the opposition, most likely led by María Corina Machado, but also international support to ensure recognition and stability for the nascent government. These two conditions being met seems unlikely.
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Policy Implications
Venezuela’s democratic forces will need to secure both internal and external support to prevent regime entrenchment. In an uncertain scenario of leadership transition, political instability is certain to bring economic hardship. The EU should engage in a dual strategy of support for democratisation and proactive preparation for a possible migration crisis on the Colombian and Brazilian borders.
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OpenEdition le sugiere que cite este post de la siguiente manera:
REGARDS CNRS (2 de diciembre de 2025). New GIGA Focus Latin America | Venezuela between US Military Threat and Regime Survival. Redial & Ceisal. Recuperado 12 de enero de 2026 de https://doi.org/10.58079/159kc