New GIGA Focus Latin America | Autonomy and Its Limits: Brazil’s Response to Trump’s Threats

GIGA Focus Latin America.

Autonomy and Its Limits: Brazil’s Response to Trump’s Threats.

Number 2 | 2026 | ISSN: 1862-3573

In 2025 Trump’s tariffs flooded the world. However, despite the power asymmetry between the United States and Brazil, Lula managed to negotiate, forcing Trump to back off from intervening in domestic affairs and to lower tariffs. But looking below the surface, data shows that Brazil has limited power to bargain, despite its will.

• In March Lula and Trump plan to meet to discuss bilateral relations. Among other topics, the Brazilian president will aim to eliminate the remaining tariffs, particularly industrial ones, which are still at 50 per cent.

• Brazil’s foreign policy of strengthening multilateralism through pragmatic alliances has created political conditions that prevent it from being entirely subordinate to Trump’s wishes. Nevertheless, Brazil’s remaining economic dependence on the US helps explain its limited autonomy.

• Lula’s response to the threats mobilised three different levels, engaging presidential diplomacy, domestic legislative reaction, and corporate lobbying.

• Lula’s government is a key player in Latin America and, on the global stage, a leading voice in the Global South. Pushing forward the EU–Mercosur agreement is a geopolitical strategy that transcends trade and helps move away from the false dichotomy of choosing between the US and China.

Policy Implications

Brazil has limited bargaining power when negotiating with the United States. The rise of Trump-aligned right-wing governments in the region could further weaken its position. However, strengthening the diversification of partners beyond traditional trade relations, as in an EU–Mercosur agreement, could benefit both Latin America and Europe.

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